Corvine settlement

Author: Alexander MaksymovPhoto: InterMedia consulting

The next strained relations of Russia and the West remind a quarrel of neighbours in the shared apartment. It seems that Russia and the USA will steal toilet paper, pour vinegar in the soup and kick neigbour's ugly cat. Though such actions are senseless, they can tonicize. But both countries will live together and it will be very difficult to make demonstrative each other's strappings. 

International reaction to Recognition by Moscow independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia was very sharp. Only Lukashenko, Nazarbayev and the Hamas supported the step of Russia. The Group of Seven delivered a joint Declaration stating that Russia violates principles of territorial integrity of Georgia.

Great Britain wants to form an anti-Russian Coalition, Angela Merkel criticized Russia. She called Russian step "absolutely inadmissible". C.Rice called it "deplorable" and George Bush used the word "regrettable".

South Ossetia and Abkhazia have not been supported by the OSCE and NATO.

Threatenings

They began to tell about political and economical sanctions. The situation must become clear on September 1, when the EU summit will be opened in Bruxelle, it will devoted to the problem of Georgia, Russia and half-recognized republics only. As for the moment, there are two versions - a Polish one, consisting of sharp measures, and an Italian one. The Italian version previews only soft criticism of Russia. According to this soft version, Russian troops must be withdrawn from the territory of Georgia, including Poti and buffer zones. EU will claim Russia on guaranteeing that the measures implied towards Georgia won't be implied towards other countries.

The sharp version of the Resolution includes financial and economic sanctions. According to this project, the EU can recommend to big business to shorten investments into Russian economy as the Russian market is unstable and risky. The EU can recommend to the European banks to stop credits for Russian banks and Companies.

One of Russian sources close to the Kremlin told that they wait for sanctions in Moscow. According to this source, there are two measures accepted by all European countries, they are suspending of agreements on partnership and cooperation and coming resolution of the EU on diversification of delivery of energy resources to Europe. This second step is quite dangerous for Moscow. It means hampering to Russian projects of the "North Stream" and "South Stream" gas pipelines. At the same time the Europeans can intensify realization of the "Nabucco" project. The "Nabucco" gas pipeline will transport energy careers from the Caspian region to Europe round Russia.

By the way, the first sanction against Russia has been in progress. Owner of the Potomac Wines and Spirits liquor shop in Washington stated that he refused to sell Russian vodka protesting against Russia's actions in Georgia.
"We're going to start a little boycott of Russian vodka," Feldman said this week. He plans to pour a bottle of Russian vodka into the toilet and lock up the rest of his stock until "the Russians leave legitimate Georgian territory, and the Georgian government is satisfied with the final outcome of this thing."

Another suggestion has been delivered by David Rivkin. He proposed to look into pockets of the Russian elite, to check the accounts of Russian officials and their investments in the USA.

The Russians were not scared of such prospect. Financial experts suggest that all doubtful investment were done under false names, mostly in Europe. All large-scaled investments have been already under the control of the American services, independently of origin of the capital.

But Russia tries to model probable consequences of new round of tension. Three versions seem probable: foodstuff price rise, inflation, problems of visits abroad.

There three groups of foodstuffs imported from the USA and EU. They are chicken, pork and diary products. They make about 30-40% of sales volume.

Inflation can rise too. The economists predict growth of the on-budget expenditures. Price rise will make to the end of the year about 12 - 12.5%.

Life of Russian tourists will become very sad, as the European countries toughen procedure of obtaining visas for the citizens of Russia. Poland proposed to frozen negotiations concerning facilitation of obtaining visas by Russian citizens.

Realty

Can the West really put Russia in a tight situation? Despite all declarations, it can't. the USA have much more possibilities than Europe, but they are limited. The opinion of the American business can differ from that of the White House. Big American Companies will doubtfully agree to refuse profitable cooperation with Russian partners. So, the most part of measures will be political, nobody will be scared with them.

As for Europe, Russia is its main gas supplier. Its resources are twice or even thrice larger than the resources of the second theoretical producer of energy careers (Iran is not judged today as a reliable supplier) and 10 times larger than Algerian resources. Even the Nabucco project won't help to solve this problem. That's why Rome will insist upon its "soft version" at the Summit in Bruxelle.

So, Italy has taken its choice connected with the Eni Company, Germany has chosen "North Stream". Italy should be supported by other European countries when "new Europeans" like Poland and the Baltic States will demand Russian blood. But eventually everything will be finished with a political declaration. Maybe, Russia will be rejected from the G8, but as the G8 actually does not exist, Moscow won't be too scared with such act. A conclusion can be drawn that Europe depends on Russia too much and Russia will make everything to strengthen this dependence.

The next strained relations of Russia and the West is a bed omen for Ukraine due to absolutely anti-Russian position of Yushchenko. Our economical dependence on Russia is evident, so it is no use to tell about probable consequences. There is no one to help Ukraine in this situation.  

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Medvedev's Decrees are a sign of a new era. Time of stability and common rules is up. The world becomes bipolar. But one have to understand that Russia will be forever one of the biggest world players despite all negative features of Putin's era. Any attempt of isolation of Russia will be a simple fizzle.

Everybody must create new rules to meet new realty. Our future depends on perfection of these rules.